Are We in a Travel Recession? AirDNA’s Jamie Lane Breaks Down the 2025 STR Market

Booking windows are shrinking. Budget travelers are pulling back. And property managers are asking the same question: Are we heading into a travel recession?

In this week’s episode, we sat down with Jamie Lane, Chief Economist at AirDNA, for a deep dive into the real forces shaping the short-term rental (STR) market in 2025. With demand patterns shifting and economic uncertainty rising, Jamie helps clarify what’s noise and what operators really need to pay attention to.

Alex & Annie shared recent conversations they’ve had with property managers who are feeling the effects of an unpredictable season. While some are experiencing slower bookings, many are more concerned with the lack of clarity in guest behavior and pacing. This episode leans into those concerns and focuses on how property managers can respond with smarter strategies.

Here are five valuable takeaways from their conversation.

1. Are We Already in a Travel Recession?

Jamie shares that while we’re not officially in a recession, many signals are pointing toward economic softening, especially in travel-related segments. Airlines are reporting a downturn in main cabin bookings, and STR demand in budget and economy listings is pacing down by 3–4%. The slowdown is most noticeable among lower-income travelers, particularly in urban markets.

2. Late Bookings and Shorter Stays Are the New Normal

With inflation still high and consumer confidence wavering, guests are waiting longer to book trips. While this doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t travel, it changes how property managers should be thinking about revenue pacing, availability, and marketing.

Annie pointed out how this mirrors conversations with PMs across the country. Many are seeing fewer bookings on the calendar but still ending up near full by check-in. The challenge is managing expectations and cash flow in the meantime.

3. Urban Hotels Are Bouncing Back But STRs Face Hurdles

Hotels in urban markets are regaining share as STR supply shrinks, largely due to strict regulations and the collapse of rental arbitrage models. Meanwhile, hotel development is still being financed, especially for branded properties, while STR expansion is being held back by high real estate prices, interest rates, and overall uncertainty.

Alex noted that this trend closely reflects conversations she’s had about regulatory changes in New York. Many STR operators in urban areas are now pivoting to management models or shifting their focus to regional markets.

4. AirDNA’s Tools Are Evolving with the Market

One of the most exciting updates Jamie shared was the overhaul of AirDNA’s Rentalizer tool. Property managers can now view and edit the comps used in pricing forecasts, making it easier to validate projections when working with homeowners or realtors. The tool also allows managers to brand reports, making it a stronger sales asset.

Annie emphasized how valuable this is for property managers trying to close new leads or win back trust with homeowners who came in during the peak and expected 2021-level returns.

5. International Travel is Down, and It Matters More Than You Think

Travelers from Canada and Western Europe are booking fewer U.S. trips in 2025, which is especially impacting markets like Florida, Hawaii, and Orlando. International guests tend to stay longer and prefer STRs over hotels, so their absence is being felt more acutely in high-demand destinations.

Alex connected this to her own experience working with destination marketing organizations, where the absence of international guests often isn’t visible until it shows up in length of stay, experience spend, or shoulder season softness.

6. What This Means for Property Managers

While there’s no need to panic, this is not the year to sit back and wait for bookings to roll in. As Jamie puts it, we’re in a “bumpy summer,” where uncertainty is driving more conservative consumer behavior. But there’s also good news: supply growth is flat, and that means operators who manage their portfolios well have a real chance to grow market share.

Watch the full episode here: